If we take a look at the 2010 top selections at running back and tight end, some of the tight ends jump off the page. Notably Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham in addition to some solid NFL tight ends. Despite having three RBs taken in the first round, none of them ended their careers more decorated than the top two tight ends.

Was it a weak RB class that was overvalued due to lack of depth or was the league in a different position when it comes to drafting these two positions?

In the 2009 NFL Draft, there were 20 RBs and 19 TEs drafted. It was a massive improvement for the TE position compared to 2007 and 2008 when the split was 23-16 and 24-13 in favor of RB. For this we have to look at what the league trend was in 2010 compared to 2025.

From 2008-10, no more than seven teams in a single season threw the ball more than 60% of the time. This got me curious about the trends related to team passing percentage and where teams are. I’m blown away at the clear shift in number of teams passing more than 60% of the time compared to teams passing less than 50% of the time. In 2014, teams passing 60% of the time hit a 22-year high of 15.

As you can see, teams aren’t throwing the ball as often as they were during the peak of the 2010s. Ironically, the last time more TEs were drafted than RBs in 2010 was the start of the upward passing trend throughout the league. Will the 2026 NFL Draft lead to the same thing? I’m not so sure… after looking at the league trends from 2003-2006, the last time teams were throwing it less than 50% of the time more often than teams throwing 60%, it’s clear to me the league has shifted. 2025 was the closest we’ve been to that period.

Team passing percentage seems to have evened out between 50-60%. What 2025 told us is that NFL offenses have become increasingly similar over the years, but teams still need to run the ball to find success. The three teams that ran the ball most frequently were the Ravens (52.05%), the Bills (49.84%) and the Super Bowl champion Seahawks (49.71%). AJ Barner led all TEs with 432 run block attempts while Jackson Hawes and Dawson Knox each ranked inside the top 10. None of these guys are sexy fantasy assets but all three contributed on two of the most frequent and successful rushing offenses in the NFL.

Tight ends are the most personnel specific position in my opinion, but in order for tight ends to build and sustain long careers they have to be able to block EDGE defenders at a high level across multiple formations. A prime example is former Ravens TE Charlie Kolar, who just signed a 3-year deal worth north of $24 million. He was paid as the best blocking TE in the entire NFL, yet you might not know him. He’s not a fantasy football relevant tight end, but he was rewarded for what he does to impact an offense.

Essentially the TE position has been split into two categories - you have your inline “blocking” tight ends that can be on the field for any down or any personnel grouping, and you have your “receiving” tight end that creates mismatches against opposing defenses. With the rise of the big nickel, see Super Bowl Champion Nick Emmanwori, defenses are in a greater position than ever to stop these formerly mismatched tight ends. In my opinion, this is a major reason why receiving tight ends have to be thought of and deployed as slot receivers in order to have tremendous success. It’s what separates the Brock Bowers and Trey McBride’s from the rest of the TE universe.

Teams that threw the ball north of 60% of the time in 2025 had a combined record of 15-53 and will all pick inside the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft. None of those teams (Raiders, Cardinals, Titans, Bengals) had a tight end on roster with more than 300 run block attempts or a PFF run block grade above 60. The two best receiving tight ends in the NFL are on these rosters, but it’s not a model for championship success. In order for the Raiders and Cardinals to run the ball effectively, control the clock and win games, they each need to invest in a complimentary TE that can be on the field for every down alongside these slot weapons.

More tight ends like Kolar are emerging year after year. Quality football players who do the dirty work whenever asked. Most of their receiving upside is capped and none of them will be fantasy relevant. As the league shifts back to running the football more and more, these players will become even more coveted.

With running backs, it’s the exact opposite. Teams are finding success bringing in RBs late in the draft who are able to contribute to an offense with very minimal draft capital. The position is so oversaturated with talent that I believe we will begin to see less and less drafted each year. Not to mention, RBs are now one of two positions primed for kick return duties under the new rules. Very few RBs that cannot play special teams are going to be tolerated on rosters, leaving guys like Kaleb Johnson and Cam Skattebo expendable over time. The best example I can give is undrafted Seahawks RB George Holani who made the eventual Super Bowl champions roster over Damien Martinez, a player Seattle invested draft capital in. Holani beat out Martinez for the spot because of his contributions on special teams.

From a pure value perspective, it just makes more sense to invest in the pieces of the offense that allow the RB to have success as opposed to overinvesting on the actual RB position. The Jeremiyah Love’s of the world aren’t going anywhere but those are few and far between. With NFL rosters holding spots for four tight ends and only three running backs in most cases, there is a not-so-subtle shift happening across the league.

The 2026 NFL Draft will see more tight ends drafted than running backs for the first time since 2010, and it may not be the last time it happens this decade.