I thought it might be fun to go back and review some of my pre-draft skill position player rankings. Not many hot takes, I simply built a ranking model that takes into account both film and analytics to determine a prospect’s ranking.

We’re in the heart of fantasy football season, and dynasty trades can be made at any point. The game of dynasty fantasy football has changed quite dramatically over the last few years, in my opinion. It’s essentially become glorified redraft with rookie-only drafts. All players are obtainable at any given moment. You don’t need a full tear down or rebuild to have success; you can simply retool your roster.

One of the best ways to do that is to look at who was a good, or even great prospect that may be underperforming through a quarter of the season.

Jalon Daniels, my 14th-ranked QB, became the first rookie QB to start this season. He has one start under his belt while two first-round picks, including the number one overall selection, haven’t seen the field. Is now the time to take a shot at buying low on Fernando Mendoza or Ty Simpson? I certainly would say so. I’m starting Daniels tonight in my guillotine league and hoping for hella rushing yards.

The same can be said with running back in my opinion. My RB rankings were not consensus with Mike Washington Jr, Jonah Coleman and Emmett Johnson as my RBs 2-4 (all 4th or 5th round picks). Meanwhile, the Seahawks used a first round pick on my 5th-ranked RB, Jadarian Price. I’d firmly say it’s time to sell Price now that he’s been placed on IR. I simply didn’t value the prospect as a first rounder, so if someone in your league still does go make a trade. Go get yourself a Bhayshul Tuten or even tier down for another rookie like Coleman, who has looked good so far and is also currently on IR for 2 more weeks. I still value my pre-draft rankings; I put a shit ton of time and energy into them. While Washington and Johnson are stuck behind bonafide RB1’s, they have both made immediate impacts. Washington is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and Johnson is averaging 14.8 yards per reception. Both of those guys are going to be more involved moving forward.

At wide receiver, Carnell Tate is the Trinity God after his Week 4 performance where Cam Ward hyper targeted him to the tune of 9 receptions for 145 yards. He was 0.02 points behind Makai Lemon for WR1 in my model. Lemon, who excels over the middle of the field out of the slot, hasn’t been utilized well at all. The Eagles’ offense is a mess — this could be a great time to buy low. And in the same vein, this is a pretty good time to buy Tate at what might not even be his highest point. Look at his elite Week 4 usage.

Sticking with WR, guys like Jordyn Tyson and Omar Cooper Jr are both currently on IR. If you have a league mate who is looking for instant production, try to flip it for one of these guys. Especially if you’re looking to rebuild or retool.

But my biggest buy, and it isn’t even close, is Antonio Williams. He was my 5th-ranked WR prior to the NFL Draft and he would’ve been firmly in the convo for WR1 had he been healthy his final season at Clemson. The Commanders offense has been struggling no doubt due to multiple injuries at quarterback. But Jayden Daniels is coming back and Williams had a huge touchdown reception called back due to penalty. His time is coming. BUY BUY BUY stock now.

Tight End has completely changed in the NFL over the last season and a half. The Rams have made 13 personnel (or 3 tight end sets) more popular than they ever have been. It’s a wild turnaround affecting the entire league. That being said, TEs have to block inline and be able to hold up in pass protection. It’s a big shift from the days when Evan Engram and OJ Howard were first round picks. The art of the receiving-only TE is gone. You must block; it’s a requirement. The Broncos cut 5th round picks Justin Joly because of this reason. It’s almost unheard of for a 5th rounder to not make a roster, or at least the practice squad.

But this doesn’t equate to fantasy success. It just doesn’t. The tight end position is borderline dead in fantasy football. So much so that I’m not going to tell you to buy anyone. Pay up for veterans like Travis Kelce, George Kittle or TJ Hockenson. It’s almost not worth the roster spot to wait on TE development in the league nowadays. I’d rather put together a player/pick package for Brock Bowers, Trey McBride or Colston Loveland (even tho Loveland has been bad, his targets were up in Week 4) before I let one of these rookies sit on the bottom of my roster, barely playing, for 2-3 seasons.

All that to say, if you’re playing dynasty you have to address these market values on a weekly basis. That’s the game now. No more waiting multiple years for prospects to develop. The market changes daily and if you ain’t first, you’re last.

Happy Trading!

Make sure you read all the way through for my updated NFL Power Rankings and Super Contest picks before opening 😉

Two of my top-5 teams lost this week (two played each other but still) so we are going to have some major shake up at the top. The 49ers handled the Broncos at home, while the Bills lost to a struggling Patriots team at home.

I would say there were no super major upsets in Week 4, however, after losing two offensive lineman and blowing a huge lead against the Rams I fear the Eagles are dead. D-E-A-D, dead.

Sean Payton has officially resumed play calling duties for the Denver Broncos, and some of the fans and media are RATTLED!

Not me, we’ll be fine. The Broncos are 2-2 against four of the NFL’s top-10 defenses. Sure, the offense has been struggling. But it isn’t a scheme issue.

Bo Nix has unfortunately played poorly. He hasn’t stayed in the pocket and hit receivers over the middle of the field. He’s missed multiple explosive plays and that’s been crippling to the offense.

The defense has some injuries, so it’s time for the offense to step up. Payton has been involved in play calling, don’t let this official change move you in any direction. It’s been a group effort, and it’s still been bad.

Another head coach taking over play calling duties is Texans’ HC DeMeco Ryans. Houston is sitting at 0-4 with a matchup against Tennessee on the road. Luckily for Ryans and company, the Titans are stank booty cheeks. I still love Cam Ward and his rocket arm, but the offense has been miserable as a unit. They covered last week for me though, but I’m not picking them this week. And they are nowhere near my top 15.

Game of the Week: 49ers at Seahawks — Anytime you get two top-3 teams playing each other, the fireworks will be there. Add the fact they are division foes and you have one of the best games of the first half of the season. Seattle will have the home field advantage for sure, but the 49ers are a damn good team and Brock Purdy is playing at an elite level right now. This is going to be full on, sit down and watch with some good game day snacks.

The Super Contest is 7 picks every week for college football and 5 picks every week for NFL. You can pick any FBS game on the pick sheet which comes out on Wednesdays.

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