After 4 weeks and one Thursday Night Football overtime thriller to kick off week 5, I want to take a look back at my draft rankings from a season ago. I’m on a mission to find out what I was right about, what I was wrong about, and keep up with how these players are performing early in their careers.
I only ranked 116 prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, and of those 116 all but three of those players, S Sebastian Castro (#92), WR Isaiah Bond (#115) and WR Xavier Restrepo (#116), were drafted. Castro was signed off the Steelers’ practice squad this week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Restrepo has yet to play a snap let alone catch a pass from his former Miami teammate QB Cam Ward.
I’m going to highlight different players I was higher than consensus on, players I missed out on and most importantly learn what I can do to improve as an evaluator. Let’s jump in!
Looking Good Early
S Jonas Sanker (#79 OVR, #5 S) – Coming out of Virginia, Sanker really impressed me with his ability to attack the backfield on run plays. I thought he possessed great instincts and make quick decisions in the run game. Funny enough, his coverage is actually what has impressed four weeks into his career. He leads all rookie defensive backs with a 79.1 PFF coverage grade. The Saints got a steal at pick 93.
S Xavier Watts (#36 OVR, #3 S) – The Notre Dame safety inexplicably fell to the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, going three picks after Sanker. He’s been nearly as good if not better than Sanker, posting an 82.1 PFF tackle grade which leads all defensive backs. Watts has intercepted two passes in the first four games of his young career which is tied for 2nd in the NFL. EDGE Jack Sawyer (#56 OVR, #10 EDGE) – After winning the College Football Playoff with Ohio State, Sawyer was selected 123rd overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s still peculiar to me that he dropped to the fourth round and was the 17th EDGE taken. His tape showed the kind of motor and production that keeps you around the NFL for a decade. He currently ranks 7th among rookies in PFF defense grade (72.9) despite limited opportunities.
WR Emeka Egbuka (#17 OVR, #3 WR) – I’m including CB/WR Travis Hunter which is why Egbuka was my #3 WR. He was only behind Tet McMillan among guys that only play one position and for good reason. He leads all rookies with 282 receiving yards and has 4 touchdowns in 4 games. That’s double every other rookie. In my scouting opinion, Egbuka was about as surefire of a first round WR you could find. He has shown why early in the season, filling in for some injured Bucs’ WRs.
WR Elic Ayomanor (#55 OVR, #7 WR) – Ayomanor fell to the back end of the fourth round, going 136th overall as the third pass catcher of the round by the Tennessee Titans. He was the 20th WR taken in the 2025 NFL Draft. He ranks second among all rookie WRs in PFF receiving grade (70.5) and ranks third among rookie WRs in targets (23) and touchdowns (2).
HM: EDGE Abdul Carter (#1 OVR, #1 EDGE), EDGE Mykel Williams (#21 OVR, #6 EDGE), RB Ollie Gordon II (#75 OVR, #8 RB), CB Jacob Parrish (#90 OVR, #9 CB), OT Josh Simmons (#22 OVR, #3 OT)
What Did I Miss?
S Andrew Mukuba (#87 OVR, #6 S) – There were other safeties I liked more than Mukuba coming out of Texas. But he’s stepped directly into a starting role in the defending Super Bowl Champion’s secondary and done well in the role. He leads all rookies with more than 100 snaps in PFF run defense grade (85.3) and was flying all over the field in the Eagles week 2 win in Kansas City. The former Longhorn was taken 23 spots higher than my ranking and is already off to a hot start in Philly.
EDGE Mike Green (#11 OVR, #5 EDGE) – I was extremely high on Green even with his off the field issues that ultimately led to him falling to the Baltimore Ravens 59th overall in the second round. He dominated Senior Bowl practice but left the event early which I would have preferred he didn’t. He had great production at North Texas but has yet to record an NFL sack despite ranking 4th among rookies in total pass rush snaps. He’s third-worst in among NFL rookies in PFF defense grade (38.5).
QB Dillon Gabriel (#NA OVR, #NA QB) – I’m going to be honest here, I really didn’t have Gabriel on my radar at all. I didn’t evaluate him because I thought he would be an undrafted player. I was advocating for him to be Tua’s backup in Miami. He went to Cleveland as a top 100 player and won the backup job against fellow QB Shadeur Sanders, who I ranked 28th overall as my QB2. Gabriel gets the start on Sunday in London against the Minnesota Vikings.
QB Shadeur Sanders (#28 OVR, #2 QB) – This QB class was never great outside of Ward at the top, but I felt like Sanders made enough plays downfield and made the players around him better. Colorado had three WRs drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft. What I didn’t account for was the behind-the-scenes shenanigans Sanders brings to the media. From not taking predraft meetings seriously to fake miming question answers at media availability, he’s going to have to mature if he hopes to stay employed.
OT Marcus Mbow (#70 OVR, #8 OT) – Not only did I have Mbow as a top 75 player on my board, I had him as a top 8 offensive tackle. He fell to the fifth round at pick 152 to the New York Giants where he’s been thrust into action early due to injuries. In those limited reps, he’s been abysmal. After what was a promising performance against the Dallas Cowboys whose pass rush in nonexistent, Mbow allowed 7 pressures in just 30 pass plays against the Kansas City Chiefs. He allowed 5 QB hits and 1 sack.
HM: OG Jonah Savaiinaea (#53 OVR, #4 IOL), WR Luther Burden III (#18 OVR, #4 WR), WR Matthew Golden (#19 OVR, #5 WR), EDGE Landon Jackson (#29 OVR, #7 EDGE), RB Devin Neal (#52 OVR, #6 RB)
Jury Still Out
CB Will Johnson (#4 OVR, #1 CB) – As you can see by my ranking, I was extremely high on Johnson coming out of Michigan. He fell all the way to the Arizona Cardinals in the second round at pick 47 due to medical concerns. When he’s on the field, he’s PFF’s 11th-ranked CB in defense grade. Johnson has already missed two games due to a groin injury, and the Cardinals are 0-2 without him.
OT Kelvin Banks Jr. (#32 OVR, #5 OT) – I was not nearly as high on Banks as consensus or the New Orleans Saints, who selected him 9th overall. I put him in the jury still out bucket only because the entire Saints’ operation is just awful. They are clearly tanking for their next QB while letting their most recent 2nd round QB watch their former 5th round QB lead them to an 0-4 record. It’s really bad. On top of that, he’s allowed 16 pressures, the most among all rookies.
TE Elijah Arroyo (#49 OVR, #4 TE) – I like what I’m seeing so far from Arroyo, but he hasn’t taken over that true X-receiver role that was being tossed around in training camp. He’s caught 5 of his 8 targets for 82 yards while lining up out wide 20% of the time, far more than any other rookie TE and 5th-most among all TEs. He’s only earned one start so far but 40% of his receptions are going for 24+ yards.
RB RJ Harvey (#95 OVR, #11 RB) – I was definitely low on Harvey, at least in the eyes of Sean Payton who took him 60th overall in the second round. He looked good on MNF last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, nearly topping the 100-yard mark while scoring his first NFL touchdown on a 12-yard pass from QB Bo Nix. He’s clearly second in the pecking order behind RB JK Dobbins who has been sensational early. Harvey’s role could expand as the season goes on.
CB/WR Travis Hunter (#2 OVR, #2 CB, #3 WR) – All we are getting from Hunter at this point is a little dabble of both offense and defense, nothing to show he’s a generational talent up to this point. They are clearly taking it slow with the #2 overall pick that they traded a future 1st to move up and select. As a receiver, Hunter is third in receptions among rookie WRs but is averaging just 9.1 yards per reception. As a corner, it isn’t much better. He’s barely played defense in two of the games and he only has 1 PBU with zero INTs. Their cautious approach has led to a 3-1 record and a hometown date with the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs in a MNF game that could reshape the AFC playoff picture.
HM: TE Gunnar Helm (#106 OVR, #6 TE), DT Walter Nolan (#23 OVR, #2 DT), EDGE Sai’Vion Jones (#78 OVR, #14 EDGE), TE Colston Loveland (#15 OVR, #1 TE), CB Jahdae Barron (#25 OVR, #3 CB)
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